LORD ASHCROFT POLL: LABOUR EXTEND LEAD DESPITE BUDGET; VOTERS SAY BORIS A LIABILITY NOT AN ASSET TO TORY CAMPAIGN

LONDON, March 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Boris Johnson would be a liability to the Conservative election campaign according to the latest poll from Lord Ashcroft, and Labour have extended their lead even though voters backed individual Budget measures.

Findings from the research include:

Clear majorities approved of individual Budget measures including the new tax on vape products (81%), increased tobacco tax (79%), freezing fuel duty (76%) and cutting National Insurance (63%). However, only 14% thought the Budget would leave them better off personally and only 1 in 10 said the same for the country as a whole.
Voters said Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves would do a better job running the economy than Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt by a 13-point margin, up from 10 points in February.Following news that Boris Johnson is set to campaign for the Conservatives at the election, we found voters saying he would be a liability to the Tories rather than an asset by 59% to 20%. They said the same of figures including Rishi Sunak (by 47% to 18%), David Cameron (by 41% to 25%) and Jeremy Hunt (by 40% to 19%) but not of Penny Mordaunt, who was seen as a campaigning asset by 28% to 21%.
On the Labour side, the biggest liabilities were Jeremy Corbyn (by 61% to 14%), Tony Blair (by 50% to 19%) and Ed Miliband (by 34% to 23%). Keir Starmer was seen as a net liability by 33% to 31%, and Angela Rayner by 27% to 24%. Only Rachel Reeves was seen as a net asset, by 25% to 17%.Starmer led Sunak as best prime minister by 33% (unchanged since Feb) to 19% (-1%). Nearly half (48%) said ‘don’t know’. Only 42% of 2019 Conservatives named Sunak.Only 17% of all voters and 24% of 2019 Conservatives thought replacing Rishi Sunak as leader would improve the party’s chances at the next election. 52% thought it would make no difference, and 10% thought it would make the Tories’ chances worse.Following Rishi Sunak’s speech on the subject, we found 46% (including 60% of 2019 Tories) saying we need tough new laws to clamp down on extremism in Britain, while 38% say we should use the laws we already have. 20% said Islamist extremism was the bigger threat, 15% named right-wing extremism, and 52% said both were equally serious. 2019 Tories said Islamist extremism was the bigger threat by 35% to 3%, while Labour voters named right-wing extremism by 31% to 8%. Only 3% of all voters said neither was a serious threat.In the wake of Redbird IMI’s bid for the Telegraph and the Spectator, 66% of all voters (including 76% of 2019 Conservative voters and 66% of Labour voters) agreed that “foreign governments should not be allowed to own UK media outlets, directly or indirectly”. 14% said they should be allowed to own UK media as long as they do not influence what is published or broadcast, and only 5% said there was no problem with foreign governments owning UK media.39% said they wanted a general election in May, with 22% preferring the autumn and 8% wanting to wait until January 2025. 2019 Tories preferred the autumn (33%) to May (23%), with just 12% wanting to wait until the last possible moment.Taking those who put their chances of voting for their highest-rated party at 50/100 or above, voting intention at the next election was Labour 45%, Conservative 23%, Reform UK 11%, Green 8%, Lib Dem 6%. Among 2019 Conservatives, the mean likelihood of voting Tory again was 42/100 (down from 48 in Feb), while Labour voters’ likelihood of sticking with their party was 69/100 (up from 66).Only 1 in 10 of those currently intending to vote Conservative said they were enthusiastic about their vote (“they’re doing a good job and deserve to win”), compared to 37% of Labour supporters who said the same. A majority (54%) of Tory leaners said they were not very enthusiastic (“not everything they’ve done is right, but they’re doing fairly well given the circumstances they face”).Nearly 1 in 3 (32%) Conservatives said they were not enthusiastic at all (“I’m not very happy with them, but they are better than the alternative”) – compared with just 17% of Labour voters who said the same of their party. Majorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters said they would be willing to vote for each other’s party if they had a better chance of beating the Conservatives locally.

5,299 adults were interviewed online between 7 and 11 March 2024. Data have been weighted to be representative of all adults in Great Britain. Full details and data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com

LORD ASHCROFT KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, pollster and author. He is a former Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party and honorary Chairman of the International Democracy Union. His recent political books include Red Queen: The Unauthorised Biography of Angela Rayner; Going For Broke: The Rise of Rishi Sunak, and Red Knight: The Unauthorised Biography of Sir Keir Starmer.

LordAshcroftPolls.com  //  LordAshcroft.com  //  Twitter/Facebook: @LordAshcroft

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